Android is on dying track. iPhone’s quiet takeover

It is now time to start thinking about developing a next major OS for smartphones. There is no spot for it on the market, but in a decade an opportunity for thriving another mobile OS will arise. Android has already dying, and here are proofs of this trend, which is already ongoing for couple of years.

Just look at this picture below. It is the most recent data on the mobile OS market share. You can clearly see: iPhone with its iOS is beating all Android vendors.

Sure, the outpacing of iPhone over Androids is not that big as of now. But you can clearly see that iPhone, with some fluctuations, outjumps any rival vendor. Best-selling Android vendor – Samsung – demonstrates no spikes in sales, showing a steady decline in popularity.

It is now clear that in a timespan of two-three years iPhone’s popularity will be steadily above any rival. You’ll get similar prognosis if you look at sales data for the identical period three years ago (Canalys Q1 2022).

In Q1 2022 Samsung held 24%, and iPhone held 18% of the market share. Three years later, in Q1 2025, Samsung holds 20%, and iPhone – 19%.

Can we really think Android is dying?

Android OS has a firm grab on over 75% of global market share. This translates in 3,5+ billion active users worldwide.

From today’s standpoint it may be absurd to claim the death of Android. Is it so?

Let’s take a quick tour back in time to explore modern fossils.

Palm OS. Killed by Windows Mobile

In 2000 Palm was worth more than Apple, Amazon, Google, and Nvidia combined. That was peak time for this OS, which took 70 percent of the global market for handheld computers (basically, smartphones without ability to make calls).

It took half a decade for Palm OS to lose everything. By 2004 its market share dropped below 42%, and 2005 highlighted total defeat with less than 19% of market share. Palm OS was killed by Windows Mobile.

Symbian. Killed by Android

Trends on this chart of 2005, show Nokia, a leading Symbian vendor, and Samsung, an emerging Android star, in the similar position as Samsung and Apple are today. As Apple chews Samsung’s market share today, the Samsung has chew Nokia’s market share back in the day.

From the chart we can spot the time point when trend became irreversible – its 2010.

Before 2010 Symbian OS was a bespoke leader in the smartphone world. Its share peaked at 67% in 2006. Five years later Symbian’s share has dropped to 0,5%. It was Android, who killed Symbian

Android has already peaked

We had Windows Mobile, Windows Phone, BlackBerry, Tizen, WebOS, KaiOS, Series 40, Firefox OS, Bada OS, MeeGo, Ubuntu Touch, not mentioning Symbian and Palm OS. Some of these OSes, like MeeGo, offered outstanding capabilities, yet it was simply bad time for them to emerge. These OSes, except Windows Mobile and Palm OS, were pushed out by Android and iOS.

It was mostly Android, who grabbed all the market space, freed by dead competitor OSes. However, Android is long past its peak and now is in steady decline. Android hit its highest point in the third quarter of 2019, reaching 76.18%.

Android has lost major market

Now it is iPhone iOS who chews Android market share, and does this at alarming rate.

It may look like globally Android’s position is not endangered. OK, its share has dropped from its peak of 76% to 72%. It’s nothing! Right?

Wrong. Android has long ago lost the major global smartphone market – USA. Moreover, iPhone steadily crushes Android share in USA.

Starting 2012 its iPhone iOS that controls over 50% of USA smartphone market, according to Kantar. In 2025 iPhone controls slightly over 57%. In 2011 iPhone’s share in USA was only 35%.

In USA people are running so fast off Android that the app "Move to iOS" entered the top of Android most popular apps in Google Play Store. The Move to iOS app took the 18th place. Think about it: top Android app is how to escape from Android.

iPhone has become best-selling smartphone globally

Apple iPhone also actively beats Android globally. For first time ever, in Q3 2023, Apple was named #1 global smartphone vendor. Apple continued to hold around that spot, reaching the top place, for example, in Q4 2024.

Despite Samsung marginally overcome Apple in number of sold smartphones, Apple leads in profits per each sold iPhone. Apple generated $390,8 billion revenue in 2024, 51% came from iPhone sales, and that is $199,4 billion. Samsung’s mobile unit generated $81 billion revenue in 2024.

Who ruined Android? Google may be the number one

Android has lost 47% of its apps for the 2024. From 3,4 million apps the number of apps available in Google Play Store dropped to just 1,8 million, according to Appfigures.

Google confirmed this drop is caused by Google’s policies. These policies were implemented in 2024.

These policies implemented in 2024 were only the most resent in Google's series of actions to take away freedom from both users and Android app developers. Here are some example of restrictions Google imposed on users and developers:

• Google is attempting to remove the ability to freely install apps, pushing users to install programs exclusively from the Google Play Store. Epic surd Google and Samsung for this practice.
• Google set excessively high demands for developers, forcing many to abandon Android app creation. Google removes apps from Google Play if they are not regularly updated. However, many apps do not require updates - they are finalized, work flawlessly, and do not need new features. This includes games with a completed storyline.
• Google requires developers to provide a copy of their government ID, real residential address, real phone number, email, and various other personal details. Some of this information is then openly disclosed to all visitors of Google Play Store. Developers who do not wish to disclose their private information are forced to delete their apps.

• Starting March 2018, Google began blocking uncertified Android devices from accessing Google Play apps and services. Google tracks the list of Google Play supported devices.
• Google demands its Google Play Services and Google apps full system access. Hardly any other Android app has similar access to all data, files and services of the smartphone.

• Users are blocked from deleting Google Play Store and Google Play Services. Not that majority of users would want to do so, since they perceive Android = Google Play.

Google does not only tighten the grip on Android’s ecosystem. Google is cutting down the previously available functionality of Android, in some cases killing whole classes of apps.

With modern versions of Android, users can no longer access a number of features they had back in the Android 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 era. Just imagine that your old crappy smartphone was more functional than your new shiny Android flagship. What a progress! For example:

• Lock screen widgets are good example. Lock screen widgets were part of Android 4 (2012), then Google removed widgets just to bring widgets back a decade later in Android 16 (2025).
• In Android 2 (2009) apps had colourful dynamic icons in Android Status bar at the top of the screen. Google restricted this with black and white static images only to bring back colorful battery icon a decade later in Android 16 (2025).

• In Android 1.5 (2009) Google offered class TYPE_TEMPERATURE, which was designed to measure the CPU temperature by any app.
  
  Modern smartphones literally die from overheating with their CPU’s connection to motherboard breaking under thermal stress.
  
  Guess what? Google deprecated TYPE_TEMPERATURE class in Android 4.0.3 (2012). No app, except Google Play Services and other deep system access app, is allowed to get temperature of the CPU.
  
  Google recommends using TYPE_AMBIENT_TEMPERATURE, which actually is the battery temperature. Meaning smartphone CPU will overheat itself to death, and you will still be getting temperature reading OK. See yourself – CPU is already 20 degrees hotter while battery is ambient (when CPU finishes its load, the tempretature will drop just as quickly as it rised, but nontetheless - battery temperature simply does not fluctuate that fast as its thousand times bigger mass needs to absorb a lot of heat. Moreover this fact is now a astndart solution for smartphone CPU cooling):
  
  Until recently at least users who managed to get ROOT access could read Android CPU temperature directly from system files like /sys/class/thermal/thermal_zone0/temp, but now Google blocked this.
• Starting Android 10 Google began limiting high quality call recording. In 2022 Google blocked from Google Play Store all apps that offered high quality in-line call recording.

iPhone is pushing out Android, and it's Android's own fault

Although Android was an unstable OS, the 2010s were a skyrocketing period, with its market share rising from around 20% to nearly 70%. Several factors were to build that success: lower price, higher functionality, user control. None of these factors are valid today, making Android lose its market share.

Android lost hardware advantage

Take a look at the specs of the iPhone 6 and Galaxy S5 – both are flagships, both were introduced in 2014 with Galaxy S5 being almost half a year older:

• iPhone 6 packed worse screen (1334x750,326 ppi) vs better screen in Galaxy S5 (1920x1080, 432 ppi)
• iPhone 6 camera 3264 x 2448 pixels vs Galaxy S5 camera 5312x2988 pixels
• iPhone 6 call time 12,5 hours vs Galaxy S5 call time over 21 hours
• iPhone 6 battery 1810 mAh vs Galaxy S5 removable 2800 mAh

In the early years Android flagships offered more hardware: more CPU, more battery, more flash storage, more ports, removable batteries, more supported technologies, pick one.

Now, let’s compare iPhone and Galaxy S top flagships of 2025 model year:

• iPhone 16 Pro Max screen 1320x2868 px, 460 ppi vs Galaxy S25 Ultra 1440x3120 px, 498 ppi
• iPhone 16 Pro Max camera 24 MP vs Galaxy S25 Ultra 12 MP. Yes, phones have 48 MP and 200 MP sensors respectively. But they lower resolution by default.
• iPhone 16 Pro Max battery 4676 mAh vs Galaxy S25 Ultra 5000 mAh

Wired and wireless charging speed, amount of flash storage, available ports - modern iPhone and Android are neck to neck in terms of hardware. In some technologies, like face recognition or satellite communication, iPhone now becomes a clear winner.

Android lost price advantage

At this point some may think, that yeah, Android does not offer hardware advantage over iPhone, but at least Android costs less for this similar hardware. And that is wrong.

When Samsung launched the original Galaxy S1 in 2010, it was priced at $400, while the iPhone 4 debuted that year at $600 - making Samsung’s phone 33% cheaper.

But since then, Galaxy prices haven’t just caught up to the iPhone - they’ve surpassed them. For example, the Galaxy S25 Ultra started at $1299 which made the $1199 price of iPhone 16 Pro Max look like a bargain.

And it's not just Samsung pushing prices higher. All Android phone prices have skyrocketed, with manufacturers justifying price hike by branding their devices as premium smartphones. Even the Google Pixel 8a, which was meant to be a budget-friendly option, now starts at $500.

What’s next for Android? No Google, less Android

Since Android and iOS have killed all competitors, there is no one to take the market spot, which is left by dying Android. There is no sign of some minor share mobile OS that, when given a chance, will evolve into a big mobile OS.

iPhone, probably, is forever stuck in its market share because of Apple’s pocket vacuuming policy. iPhone costs a lot, headphones to this iPhone cost a lot, Apple certified adapters and dongles cost a lot. iPhone’s ecosystem offers almost no free apps. And even when users download apps not from Apple App Store, they still pay to Apple, at least as of 2025. Situation may change, as Apple is under investigation for such practice.

Obviously, the iPhone is designed for relatively rich people. Unfortunately, the vast majority of the world's population is constantly in a state of survival, teetering on the edge of poverty.

It looks like the next big mobile OS will be Android, but with less Android. And, obviously, no Google.

Since Huawei in 2020 was kicked out of Google Android playground, it developed its own Android-based OS – Harmony OS. Other chineese vendors also correctly understood that signal, and started developing their own versions of Android-based OSes. For example, Xiaomi develops Hyper OS.

Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, OnePlus, and Huawei - are reportedly considering developing an Android-based system that operates independently of Google services.

Speculation suggests that HyperOS 3 might serve as the foundation for this shift, though the extent of collaboration between these brands and Huawei’s role in the initiative remains uncertain.

In half a decade we may see completely new set of OSes who evolved from Google Android. Huawei has already taken a step by eliminating Android app compatibility from its Harmony OS platform.